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Models of COVID-19 outbreak trajectories and hospital demand. This tool is based on the SIR model (see about page for details) that simulates a COVID19 outbreak. The population is initially mostly susceptible (other than for initial cases). Individuals that recover from COVID19 are subsequently immune. Currently, the parameters of the model are not fit data but are simply defaults. These might fit better for some localities than others. In particular, the initial case counts are often only rough estimates. The primary purpose of the tool is to explore the dynamics of COVID19 cases and the associated strain on the health care system in the near future. The outbreak is influenced by infection control measures such as school closures, lock-down etc. The effect of such measures can be included in the simulation by adjusting the mitigation parameters. Analogously, you can explore the effect of isolation on specific age groups in the column "Isolated" in the table on severity assumptions.
Features
- Most parameters can be adjusted in the tool and for many of them we provide presets (scenarios)
- Input data for the tool and the basic parameters of the populations are collected in the /data directory
- Please add data on populations and parsers of publicly available case count data there
- The online application provides a friendly user interface with drop downs to choose model parameters, run the model, and export results in CSV format
- Select the population drop down and select a country/region to auto-populate the model's parameters with respective UN population data
- These parameters can be individually updated manually if necessary
Project Samples
